The Form Guide suggests | GW12 Forwards

GW12 – Forwards

Firmino
Having scored 3 in his last 3 (including in both of the last away games he’s played), and with Liverpool sitting pretty at the top of the table, it takes a brave person to ignore the on fire Firmino this week. Puel’s change of tactics this year has meant the usually solid Southampton defence have kept only 2 clean sheets so far this season. Firmino’s constant threat and chance creation average (2.9 per game) mean he is likely to make it difficult for Van Dijk and co again this week and should be back in the points once again. With no European distraction for Klopp either, there is no rotation risk.

Harry Kane
Now back from injury and fully fit the Spurs frontman looks set to take advantage of another leaky defence this week. This time in the form of West Ham. Admittedly 2 clean sheets in their last 4 for West Ham has seen them edge out of the relegation zone and start to look forward not back (mostly thanks to the return of Winston Reid). However, with Reid a potential doubt for this weekend and West Ham struggling on the road, GW12 looks set up nicely for the North Londoner to reward those willing to take a punt. Beware, Spurs play a vital Champions League tie away in Monaco just 48 hours later so Kane has to go down as a rotation or ‘early sub’ risk this weekend.

Aguero
Quite simply, he’s Aguero. He always scores. It was only a couple of weeks ago the papers were telling us he was finished and Pep didn’t see a future for him. Well Aguero came back with a bang, firstly with a brilliant performance against Barcelona but then also against West Brom in GW 10 with some sensational finishing. Interestingly Aguero has averaged 34 points in away games this season which is bettered only by Sanchez, so don’t let the (A) scare you off selecting the premier league’s top marksman this week.

Lukaku
A plum home tie against a struggling Swansea team makes this a fairly obvious decision this week. Lukaku’s 7 goals have come in the last 8 appearances and so form and fixture is on his side. Be warned, I expect most teams will include Lukaku this week as he is considerably cheaper than the rest of the top avg points scorers. That means even a hat-trick from the Belgium this week is unlikely to ensure a top 10 finish. Leave him out at your peril though…

Strikers to Avoid

Pedro
Although a player very much in form, due to Pedro’s poor away stats and Middlesbrough’s tendency to pick up their game against the top sides this season, the stats suggest there are better buys elsewhere

Sam Vokes
The striker might be in great form, but the Hawthorns is a tough place to go for any striker these days and I can’t see him doing what Aguero did a couple of weeks ago. Avoid this week

Theo Walcott
Typically saves his best performances for the home crowds, Theo hasn’t always produced in the big games away from home. Arguably his goals this season against Liverpool and Chelsea suggest this could be the turn around we were all waiting for and he could be another differential risk worth taking. However, Mourinho is the master of stopping Wenger in his tracks, and Arsenal have a top of the table decider 4 days later at PSG so for GW12 there feels like better options available.

Check out the risk differentials under the ad…




Risk Differentials

(Those who dare, win!)

Christian Benteke
Facing a leaky City defence this week, Benteke is still yet to get off the mark at home for his new club and as a result is likely to be overlooked by most this week. However, Crystal Palace’s counter attacking football (usually saved for away days) clearly favours Benteke with 6 chances created and 3 goals in last 4 away games. Palace host a City side likely to dominate the ball as if playing at home themselves, and so playing as the ‘away team’ might just work for Pardew’s men this week. Those looking for a differential risk (considerable risk in opinion) might just fancy a punt on the Belgium, who if nothing else is likely to get his head on a lot of crosses to rack up more clearance points too.

Jermaine Defoe
A plum home tie in a 6-point relegation scrap (yes I went there already) against a team conceding goals away from home for fun, seems like it would be an obvious choice this week. However, as discussed in This Article Defoe has struggled for FanDuel points this season, in spite of his 6 goal return so far, averaging a measly 17.32 PPG. A great Fantasy Premier League choice this week for sure but not as nailed on for Fanduel. With a lack of creativity in the team and other finishers around him, Defoe has suffered for his fox in the box instincts, with goals seemingly not enough to complete at the top end of this game. However, if he is ever going to replicate his performance from GW6 at home to Palace, where he scored a very impressive 49.25 points off the back of 2 goals and 3 shots on target, you’d expect this week could be it. At £7.8M and on penalty duty you’ll be hard pushed to find better value elsewhere in the front line this week if that’s what you’re after.

Troy Deeney
What’s happened to Ranieri’s defence? Leicester have conceded 14 goals in 5 away games this season! As the foxes rock up to Vicarage Road this week, Deeney and Ighalo will be licking their lips at the chance to get back to form and back on the scoresheet. Neither have any goals in their last 4 but against a leaky Leicester City side, with one eye surely on the Club Brugge game 3 days later, this week is the perfect opportunity to do so. Those big on risk and reward (which as you’ll know is a key factor to winning FanDuel contests) need look no further than the big Englishman in my opinion.

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